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Roguelites and gambling

I've been show and tell heavy lately. So, here's a lighter blog post about my gaming habits and an examination of the roguelite genre. It comes very close to saying something... almost.

Apologies in advance for my self-reflection on my own history of gaming and current habits.

A gamer's journey

My earliest memories are of video games. The N64 in the family basement. Mario Kart, Mario Party, Super Smash, etc. Growing up I alternated between friend groups playing PC games like Runescape, League of Legends, and World of Warcraft with some, and XBox 360 classics like Call of Duty or Bad Company 2 with others. I started undergrad thinking I wanted to go into game development. I dropped that dream quite quickly after learning the realities of game dev and the industry1.

Once I got into college, I had to prioritize my time a little more. Party games stayed in the rotation of course. But I moved more toward games that were easy to hop in and out of. I valued Old School Runescape2 for the community, RPG elements, measured progress toward goals, and continuity across long periods of time. I have fond memories of sitting for hours while watching a show grinding various skills and doing quests. However, I feel I've reached a point in the game where getting to the "end game" would require 10s to 100s of hours of investment. Similarly with WoW, once leveling is done3, it becomes a second job where you have to organize 20+ internet people to meet at after work.

I also spend a lot of my time at a computer anyway, so I've gravitated toward controller games.

Anything PvP is basically off the table for me at this point. I don't particularly like the stress for some reason. Getting "good" at games like these feels painful rather than fun. MOBAs are out. I did my time in the DOTA 2 and LoL mines. The shooters that I do play usually look like "extraction" PvE games like Deep Rock Galactic, Helldivers 2, and recently Far Far West. These games have light RPG elements and a "jump in, jump out" aspect. But, still require sustained playtime for 25-45 minutes when a game starts.

Where does that leave me? I want a clear, saved progression, an (optional) multiplayer PvE experience, the ability to easily pause / stop playing with no penalty, and controller support. There's a list of other finer details, but those are the broad strokes.

Survival or exploration games seem to fit into these categories. Games like V Rising, Palworld4, Grounded, Valheim, and Enshrouded seem like they'll scratch the itch. However they suffer from two issues. First, progression isn't actually shared. Servers retain progression and going from single player to multiplayer means starting over. Second, for some reason, they all have the same bad UI. There's a lot of mechanics to give to a player in games like this. So, designing UI is not easy. Games like No Man's Sky sort of get it right. But it can be unwieldy at times.

Though very unfinished, Veloren has a lot of the elements I'm interested in. It fills the hole that the Cube World Alpha left in my heart.

Recently, rougelites have been checking some of those boxes. Specifically, Slay the Spire 2, Heroes of Hammerwatch II, Mortal Sin, and Loop Hero. These are great little arcade-y games that have lots of hours in them if the gameplay loop hooks you. There's metaprogression and all of them are easily enjoyed on the couch.

Recently, I did a project getting LLMs to play Rogue as a game-playing benchmark. I made a side comment on wanting to dive a little deeper on the rise of roguelites. Specifically in relation to gambling. So, here it is.

The roguelite

A very articulate history and analysis by youtuber DoshDoshington of rogue(lite|like) games can be found here. One of many reviews of the original game, Rogue, can be found here. The general themes of this kind of game are:

  • Permadeath: you try to get as high a score or get as far in the game as possible in one life.
  • Randomness: each "run" has some randomly generated elements. Gear, dungeon layouts, enemies, power ups, in-game currency, etc.
  • Metaprogression: (optional) you accumulate some amount of power / currency between runs that let you go farther the more you play.

Let's take a modern example that exemplifies these three elements.

Mortal Sin is a gory action roguelike dungeon crawler. The goal is to battle through hordes of monsters Doom style. There are lots of class types and combos that you can master. It has the laundry list as well.

Permadeath in Mortal Sin of course means you only have one life to get as far as you can.

Randomness comes in the form of items picked up in the dungeons. A certain weapon or helmet will have stats that improve on a particular play style. This interplay is one of the key draws of Roguelites. Yes, a really good sword will mean you get further. But a full set of gear that supports the play style you like is the holy grail. I'll come back to this. Dungeon layouts, monsters, and quests are also randomized.

Metaprogression comes in a few forms. Completing certain objectives unlocks new classes. In a perfect world, these are all balanced. However, one may suit your play style more than another. Currency also accumulates between deaths. This can be spent on armor and weapons to use at the start of a new run.

Mortal Sin is much more skill-focused than other games. Running your head into a challenge over and over doesn't mean you'll eventually succeed through metaprogression. One does have to learn the game's systems and actually get better.

So, what does all that have to do with gambling? Strictly speaking, not much. You've only "wagered" $24.99 to buy the game and whatever your time is worth to you while playing5.

Spin the wheel

You may be aware that everything is gambling now6. Pick your poison: prediction markets, sports betting, (online) casinos. According to a study published in 2025, online wagers (read: mobile app) at sportsbooks accounted for 98% of the $121,100,000,000 wagered in 2023. The study also showed that total wager value had increased year-over-year in the ballpark of 10-20% from 2020 to 2023. From a cursory Google search, this seems approximately true in 2023, 2024, and 2025 as well.

And this is just sports gambling. Including all the other various sources would be a lofty goal. Much of gambling is offshore, grey market, done with crypto, etc. The takeaway here is that people just love gambling! Especially on their phones7.

The DSM-5 has a whole section just for gambling disorder. The DSM gives the following explanation:

Gambling involves risking something of value in the hopes of obtaining something of greater value... The essential feature of gambling disorder is persistent and recurrent maladaptive gambling behavior that disrupts personal, family, and/or vocational pursuits.

And goes on to say:

A pattern of “chasing one’s losses” may develop, with an urgent need to keep gambling... to undo a loss or series of losses.

I'm sure there are a handful of people hopelessly addicted to a rougelite out there who see themselves in the first quote. However, this second point on chasing losses I think resonates with the gameplay loop of a rougelite. Even for those with a healthier relationship with gaming.

In the community, you'll hear about the concept of "just one more run". This is the idea that the next run will be where the stars align and the game is beaten or a particular goal is accomplished. In the Mortal Sin example, this might be obtaining really good gear early in the run or having an easier time with monster spawns. Certainly, this is the intended effect from a developer. This is really just making a fun experience at the end of the day.

Rougelites have an interesting habit of reimagining classic gaming formats. Some of these reimaginings get quite exotic. For example, Ball x Pit reinvents Brick breaker as a roguelite. This style of "remake" has the benefit of the player already understanding the basic concept of the game. The roguelite formula then sprinkles in the elements that people seem to love.

This continues with some popular roguelites literally based on classic wagering games. One of the most successful roguelites of all time, Balatro, is based on poker. Raccoin is based on coin pushers. CloverPit is based on slot machines. Truly a match made in heaven.

These are just thematic choices, of course. No real money is spent or lives destroyed. I'm just pointing out a noteworthy overlap.

So what?

I don't think there is really a "so what" here. Compared to losing your life savings, roguelites are a much better alternative.

We know that gambling activates the brain's reward system. But so does anything the brain perceives as good for you. "Dopamine hits" are also well known in the gaming world. Roguelites are just hooking into that system a little more than something like a classic RPG or even a table top board game.

I don't think roguelites are bad. I just think their relationship with gambling is interesting.

  1. That said, I am quite inspired by the boom of indie PC development in the past decade or so. Looking at game dev as a way to make money is probably the wrong framing. Many successful games come from truly passionate people. Perhaps someday I'll try my hand with some coding assistant help. ↩

  2. At the time of writing, my proudest achievement is 96 slayer. ↩

  3. In a lot of ways, leveling was my favorite part. Pre-Cataclysm WoW was a real exploration into the Warcraft lore that I liked. TurtleWoW (RIP) also appealed to me in that way. There's another blog post here that is a love letter to Warcraft III: The Frozen Throne. ↩

  4. In all fairness, I haven't played this one. But, other than the creature collector mechanic, it seems it will be the same as the rest of the genre. ↩

  5. This is, of course, a very philosophically empty point of view. Assigning a certain value to one's time is a slippery slope toward a negative life. Sometimes enjoying the journey of playing a game, watching a movie, going for a walk, listening to music, talking to loved ones, or whatever is worth much more than the time spent on it. More simply, just because one gets paid a lot per hour (amortized) does not mean they can experience something "more intensely" than a person who is paid less. ↩

  6. You can find a plethora of video essays on this topic. For example Everything is Gambling Now by Ordinary Things or The Gambling Epidemic is So Much Worse Than You Think by Second Thought. ↩

  7. If you are in the US and you or someone you love has a gambling problem, you can call 1-800-GAMBLER for help. ↩